Someone on /pol/ commented on my refutation of Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ.

On suicide: suicide rates are greater today than in traditional societies. The main reason is probably because civilization has forced us into socially alienated roles that are completely at odds with our genetic programming and our needs as human beings. Here’s a couple bullet points:

• Suicide rates among adolescents and young adults in America nearly tripled between 1952 and 1996.
• Between 1980 and 1996, suicide rates almost doubled among 14-15 year olds and rose by 14% in the 15-19 age group.

The linked source specifically mentions social isolation as a risk factor for suicide. Given Japan’s unhealthy obsession with work and neglect of family, it isn’t surprising that it has such a high suicide rate. Also given that whites tend to work longer hours and spend less time with family and friends than blacks, it isn’t surprising we have a higher suicide rate. The same cause is probably why men commit suicide more often than women.

See how one simple theory about suicide (social alienation and overwork) predicts the data? Social isolation has doubled since 1950 (according to Bowling Alone) and suicide among teens and young adults has tripled. The connection is obvious.

Traditionalism puts more emphasis on family and social networks, thus traditional societies suffer less social isolation, therefore less suicide. See the suicide rate of places like the Philippines, where family living is almost universal and the suicide rates are about a fourth that of the United States. Scott posted a graph that suicide rates in the United States have not increased in the last 50 years, that is average suicide rates. Here’s a graph that shows how suicide rates among the 15-24 age range has increased, especially among males:

We’ve gotten so much richer and freer, with diversity and all that great stuff, so why are young men committing suicide at 3-4 times the rate they did in the backwards, sexist 1950s? I’m not really impressed that the average suicide rate has stayed level if young men are blowing their brains out at three times the recent historical rate.

Suicide also correlates with divorce. The divorced are 1.7 times more likely to end their own lives. Sexual revolution, contraception, and no-fault divorce laws enable hypergamy which causes divorce which leads to suicide. 75 percent of divorce is initiated by women, which probably leads to greater relative suicide among men.

The problem with evaluating historical suicide rates going back further than 1950 is that I can’t find any data. Suicide was more taboo and statistics would have been fudged. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if the suicide rate in civilized countries of the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries were not 3-6 times lower than the suicide rate in America today. Even the suicide rate of Greece today is one-fourth that of America.

My overall position on suicide is that 1) it is a problem, 2) social alienation and divorce contribute greatly to it, 3) it can be fixed by improving social participation, fostering strong (non-Internet) local networks, encouraging marriage and discouraging divorce.

Onto the next issue: debt. The commenter seems to think that the vast increase in government and public debt over the course of the last century “doesn’t seem like a big deal to me.” With all due respect to the commenter, I don’t think this is worth arguing against. The data on this is all very clear and public. My source is the Long-Term Budget Outlook, a report published annually by the Congressional Budget Office. Anyone interested in the government debt can begin there.

The next issue is crime. The commenter says, “He claims there are many sources out there showing how crime has gotten worse, but never specifies exactly which ones. Meanwhile, Scott provided numerous figures and data showing that crime has not increased.”

First, Scott has come closer to my view since my original post. We agree that crime has dropped since 1985, but I don’t consider this very significant relative to the vast gulf in crime between the United States and Japan or the United States of 1931 and the United States of 2014.

Second, I have specified precise sources and showed that the murder rate has not only greatly increased, but that if it weren’t for better trauma medicine, the murder rates today would be between 7.5 and 28.75 times greater today than in 1900. (How did I get those numbers? Murder rates today are five times greater than in 1900, and the authors of the trauma medicine article estimated a 1.5-5.75 dampening factor on assault deaths due to better medicine. That is, murder rates would be 1.5-5.75 times higher without modern medicine. Five times 1.5 is 7.5, five times 5.75 is 28.75. If you actually go and read the article, the authors lean strongly towards the higher values–that is, the result that murder rates would be 20-30 times greater today if it weren’t for better medicine.)

People are using deadly force on one another at 20-30 times greater than the rate in 1900. Doesn’t this bother anybody? Why are neoreactionaries the only people making a fuss about it?

In addition, in my crime post I cited a source that said that aggravated assault is up by 750 percent since 1931.

I’ll leave my speculations on why the homicide/assault rate has exploded over the past century for another post. I’ll bet my readers have some good ideas of their own. These rates are slightly down in the last decade due to better policing, but still 20-30 times greater than they should be.

Regarding other points, the commenter says I was handwaving. I will address the other points if other people want to hear more on them, otherwise, I consider my initial response to be adequate.